By Prof. Tridivesh Singh Maini

Introduction

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Pakistan, to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit held in Islamabad on October 15-16, 2024,  drew attention for several reasons. Most importantly, this was the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister to Pakistan after nearly nine years. In December 2015, then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Pakistan to attend the Heart of Asia Conference. PM Narendra Modi had also made an impromptu stop over at Lahore in December 2015 — on his return from Kabul — and met with then-Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif – currently the President of Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N) and brother of current Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif). 

The downward spiral in bilateral ties ever since 2016 

Ties between both countries have been on a downward slope ever since  2016 — after the Uri terror attack (Jammu and Kashmir). After the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 by India, bilateral ties dipped further and the then Pakistan Tehreek-E-Insaf (PTI) government in power in Pakistan suspended economic and diplomatic ties with India. Amidst tensions between both countries, two important developments have taken place – the inauguration of the Kartarpur Religious corridor in November 2019 — which connects Dera Baba Nanak (Punjab, India) with Darbar Sahib, Kartarpur (district Narowal, Pakistan). The latter is the final resting place of the founder of the Sikh faith Guru Nanak Dev Ji. A visa-free pilgrimage to  Kartarpur Sahib had been a long-standing demand of the community (only recently, the Kartarpur Religious Corridor agreement between both countries was extended by 5 years). The second important development was the ceasefire agreement, in February 2021, between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC).

A few points need to be borne in mind.

First, elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir and a coalition government led by the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC), with Omar Abdullah as Chief Minister, was sworn in on October 18, 2024 (Omar happens to be the Vice President of the NC). This is the first election after the revocation of Article 370. and other political outfits including the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have been calling for the resumption of engagement with Pakistan. 

Second, S. Jaishankar had unequivocally stated that he is visiting Islamabad in connection with the SCO and there would be no bilateral meetings on the side. While no statements were made in the India-Pakistan context, the overall atmosphere of the Foreign Minister visiting Pakistan was positive. Jaishankar is supposed to have had an informal interaction — on the sidelines of the SCO Summit — with Pakistan’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister, Muhammad Ishaq Dar. There have been media speculations regarding the resumption of engagement via sports – Pakistan is hosting the Champions Trophy in January 2025 (The Ministry of External Affairs dismissed reports of a resumption of cricketing ties with Pakistan being discussed during these conversations). During his address at the SCO Summit, Jaishankar stated that any meaningful cooperation in trade and connectivity was only possible in the absence of terrorism. He also highlighted the need for greater transparency in connectivity initiatives. 

Important points made by Nawaz Sharif during his conversation with the Indian delegation

Nawaz Sharif’s conversation with a delegation of Indian journalists – who had gone to cover the SCO Summit – in Lahore was significant. First, he spoke about the need for the resumption of ties between both countries and for both countries to move ahead. Sharif also highlighted his contributions towards improving the bilateral relationship. Second, he spoke about the resumption of sporting ties and also said that he would travel to India to witness the final of any cricket series in India.

Finally, Sharif who has always been a votary of robust trade ties highlighted the need for economic ties. Said Nawaz Sharif:

“Maybe my thinking is different from others, but I believe we are a potential market for each other. Why should Indian and Pakistani farmers and manufacturers go outside to sell their products? Goods now go from Amritsar to Lahore via Dubai — what are we doing, who is benefitting from this? What should take two hours now takes two weeks,”

Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, while speaking at an event in Washington, D.C., also made the point that not trading with its neighbours did not benefit Pakistan in any way. He clarified that geopolitical issues were outside his purview. 

The former Pakistan PM’s statement regarding closer economic ties with India is important since the disruption of trade ties between India and Pakistan has impacted Punjab (India) — especially the border belt of the state. While the level of trade between India and Pakistan was not significant, the tertiary sector of Punjab had benefited from bilateral trade (disruption of trade between both countries had resulted in massive job losses in the border belt of the state). Several politicians, business lobbies and farmers groups – from the Indian border state – have been pushing for a resumption of trade ties between both countries. 

In April 2024, Maryam Nawaz Sharif, the daughter of Nawaz Sharif and Chief Minister of Punjab (Pakistan) while speaking to Sikh pilgrims from India invoked the common Punjabi identity and pitched for better ties between both countries. Said Maryam Nawaz:

“We should not fight with our neighbours. We need to open our hearts for them.”

Maryam Nawaz also spoke about the need for both Punjab to work together to deal with the problem of smog – while participating in Diwali celebrations in Lahore on October 30, 2024. Said the Chief Minister of Punjab (Pakistan):

“Until both Punjabs come together, we won’t be able to tackle the issue of smog,” 

In 2017, current Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, who was the then CM of Punjab (Pakistan) had also proposed cooperation with the Indian Panjab for dealing with the issue of smog.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is always perilous to make any predictions regarding geopolitics – even more so when it concerns India-Pakistan relations, the visit of S. Jaishankar and some of the statements of former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif who is the president of the ruling party need to be welcomed with cautious optimism. Protagonists of better ties between both countries would be hoping that recent developments pave the way for at least incremental steps towards improving economic and people-to-people ties between both countries. Resumption of trade would be especially beneficial for the Pakistani consumer and the border state of Punjab (India).

About the Author: 

Prof. Tridivesh Singh Maini is an Assistant Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs. He was also a Public Policy Scholar with The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy and Asia Society India-Pakistan Regional Young Leaders Initiative. He was also a former South Asian Voices (SAV) Visiting Fellow (Winter 2016) with the Stimson Centre, Washington DC.

Image Source: Al Jazeera