By Jigyasa Maloo
Abstract
The ongoing siege in Gaza after the unprecedented October 7th rampage on Israel has once again thrust the Middle East at a precipice. It has heralded a wave of assaults orchestrated by Iranian-backed armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen across the region. This article comprehends and analyzes the spurring of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and their nexus with the United States (US); furthermore understanding what US involvement entails in the wider regional dynamics.
Iraq: Iran’s proxy backyard and the US’s fre-nemy
Iraq has had a longstanding tumultuous relationship with Iran and the US. The two decades of misadventures since 2003 inevitably established a continued US presence on Iraqi soil. With roughly 2,500 US soldiers currently dispersed across the country, the cogent stated reason has been to train, advise, and assist the Iraqi security forces to fight the vestiges of Islamic States. Another is providing the logistical backbone to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. As asserted by the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin III, “U.S. military personnel are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government…The United States remains committed to a secure, stable, and sovereign Iraq.” This is specifically laid down in Section 1 of the Strategic Framework Agreement between the US and Iraq. Nevertheless, the US presence has been a persisting bone of contention in Iraqi society, which has taken a turn for the worse following last October.
Much of the pushback has come from the Iranian-backed militias, which exert excessive influence on Iraqi polity and society, no matter the composition of the Iraqi government. Iran proved to be the principal unwritten factor for the United States’ overstay in Iraq. In Iraq, as a Shitte majority country, Tehran’s unfettered access dates back to the 1980s with the underground struggle against Saddam Hussein to hostility against US forces post-2003. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Qods Force (IRGC – QF), has been at the forefront in arming, advising, and training several powerful militias in Iraq.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: A Collective Brand
Al-Muqawama al-Islamiyah fi al-Iraq or Islamic Resistance in Iraq (or IRI) is an all-inclusive generic nomenclature comprising Iranian-backed militias in Iraq such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada. As Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at Chatham House argued, “[they] see themselves as vanguards fighting against Israel and American imperialism in the region”. They have been orchestrating missiles and drone attacks on US/coalition forces and their bases in Iraq and Syria stemming from US support to Israel since October 18, 2023. These attacks are increasingly congruous to the broader Iranian strategy in the region, which entails the complete pullout of US forces. Under the umbrella of IRI, around 180 attacks have been repeatedly launched in Iraq and Syria between October 18, 2023, and February 4, 2024. While, in Iraq, the targets have usually been the al-Asad Airbase in Anbar, the Harir Airbase, and near the Erbil Airport in Erbil.
According to the Washington Institute, as a collective, IRI publicly started claiming responsibility via a Telegram group ‘al-Elam al-Harbi’ on October 18, 2023. IRI is not a group but it facilitates a platform to elude culpability of any one militia in Iraq as well as ensuring plausible deniability of Tehran’s connection. Nonetheless, there have been concerns regarding IRI’s operational decision-making and functionality – ‘how much authority does Iran have over them?’ Experts have argued it depends because these militias and Iran have no hierarchical chain of command. Even US intelligence reckons that Iran does not direct and command the attacks, albeit responsible for supplying arms. There lies a degree of interest and latitude among these militias, despite the shared regional objectives and strategies. For instance, certain militias are equally anti-US and anti-Iran. In another case, militia such as Kata’ib Hezbollah is also a part of the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), which is an official part of the Iraqi state security apparatus. Further, though aligned ideologically with Iran, the subtle presence of intra-Shitte rift needs to be considered.
Tit-for-Tat: A cycle of escalation
The climax ensued when for the first time 3 US soldiers were killed and dozens were wounded from a lethal strike on January 28, 2024, at Tower 22 in north-eastern Jordan along the Syrian border. It marked a major escalation since October 7, also making it the highest casualty event for the US in more than a decade. The attack along the Jordan – Syria border emphasized the reach of Iran even in Jordan. US President Joe Biden, vowing determined retaliation, said the response ‘will continue at times and places of our choosing’. And on February 2nd, the US struck 85 Iranian militias and IRGC – QF targets, killing 34 in Iraq and Syria. The strikes were solely conducted by the US and launched from American soil, intentionally not using bases in the Middle East, to prevent association with regional allies. Secondly, the strikes aimed to reduce their military capabilities to conduct similar attacks. However, it did not dissuade these militias into taking action – the consecutive days, on the 3rd, and 4th IRI targeted US bases – although continuing in low intensity.
In another sweeping tit-for-tat exchange, a unilateral precision strike on February 7th killed a high-value individual target – the commander of Kata’ib Hezbollah, in downtown Baghdad. Baghdad categorically condemned it, with the military forces spokesperson Yehia Rasool vehemently expressing how, ‘the American forces jeopardize civil peace, violate Iraqi sovereignty, and disregard the safety and lives of our citizens.’
This particular attack has angered and intensified the pressure for immediate dismissal of the US military, spearheaded by Iranian militias. A déjà vu scenario transpired in January 2020, with the targeted killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al Muhandis in Baghdad. Iraq is at a delicate crossroads oscillating the pressure from Iranian-backed groups and the growing strained relation with the United States. Since last year US and Iraqi counterparts have been negotiating to ensure the smooth withdrawal of US soldiers and correspondingly build up a bilateral relationship. But these attacks make it risky for the US to leave at this juncture. A significant impact of withdrawal would be for the regional allies – could they trust the United States? As rightly argued by Bilal Wahad from the Washington Institute, “staying in Iraq may not exactly be a ‘win’ for Washington, but leaving would produce significant losses in reputation, interests, and power”.
From Iraq to Beyond
The spell of deceptive lull before October 2023 was ultimately shattered, also reiterated in the optimistic words vouched by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. He said a week before October 7, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” The phase of rapprochement – détente in the Middle East, all came to an interlude. The ‘theater of contestation’ between Iranian-backed militias and the US is certainly not restricted to Iraq. The network of Iranian-backed militias has its tentacles far and wide. It’s important to highlight that attacks by Iran and its militias have been measured and calculated, avoiding conflagration, until January 28. A common denominator that could instigate unconstrained escalation depends on how the US responds. The US is in a catch-22 situation whether they strike or not, the situation invariably favors the militias. The US does not intend to get dragged into confrontation with Iran, and rupture ties with Iraq. Meanwhile, the US cannot hold out by appearing weaker and unresponsive. At this moment, the development in the wider region dictates how the US will react. From Israel-Hamas to the Red Sea crisis, all point to one thing – United States involvement is equivalent to escalation.
Author’s Bio
Jigyasa Maloo is pursuing Masters’ in Diplomacy, Law, and Business from the Jindal School of International Affairs. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Political Science from St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata. Her areas of interest lie in conflict, and security, particularly in the Middle East and the Sahel region.
Image Source: https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2018/10/16/avoiding-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-in-iraq/
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