By Tanish Srivastava

Abstract

As the war in Ukraine rages on, the topic of The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (Hereinafter referred to as ‘NATO’) expansion inside Europe is increasingly cited as the immediate cause of the conflict. NATO’s size has continued to expand even after the end of the cold war, as the alliance recruits members that were a part of the former soviet bloc in Europe. This expansion has in turn proven to be a point of insecurity for the Russian Federation, especially in the context of NATO’s expansion to Ukraine and Georgia, both of which have been invaded by Russia in the past two decades. While NATO’s expansion is criticised heavily in light of the war in Ukraine, it is important to understand the history of Ukraine and its relations with NATO. This article aims to analyse the history of Ukraine, Russia and NATO, to try and understand the source of the conflict.

Background

Russia has had a concern, which is the increasing influence of NATO  and indirectly, the United States, in Europe. According to Russia, The entrance of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would be a direct military threat to Russia, as NATO would now directly be on Russia’s borders, right next to its population centres that are towards the western part of the country, in Europe. There are also concerns of the stationing of American troops and weapons (especially nuclear weapons) being stationed in Europe, on Russia’s borders. This would pose a direct military threat to Russia, as NATO functions on a Mutual Defence Agreement, which means that an attack on one member is an attack on all and calls on all members to immediately use military force against the aggressor (provided under Article 5 of NATO). It is important to note that this is not applicable if the aggressor in the situation is one of the members of NATO.

On 24 February 2022, The Kremlin announced its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, which was aimed at de-militarising and “De-Nazifying” Ukraine. Ukraine’s interest in joining NATO has been opposed by Russia, and has been cited by many as the primary reason for Russia’s military carrying out a special operation in Ukraine. The conflict in Ukraine has been active for more than a year now, with clear threats of nuclear warfare from the Russian side. 

The history of this conflict, however, does not start in 2022. For some it could be the invasion of Crimea in 2014 which shall be discussed later in the article and for others it could be 2008, when during the NATO Bucharest summit the alliance stated that Ukraine will have a place in NATO. However the history of the conflict goes way back in history since the relations of Ukrainian people with Russia and historically, their treatment under Moscow’s rule also plays a part in the conflict that is unfolding today.

Timeline of Events

The clarity of the events that transpired before this war are of grave importance. First, it is important to clarify what exactly NATO’s plan of action regarding Ukraine exactly was. In order to admit a new member state into NATO, all members of the alliance must approve the new member’s entrance. This has been highlighted in examples such as Sweden, whose entrance into NATO was blocked by Turkey. Back in 2008, during the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, there was disagreement over the admittance of Ukraine and Georgia in the alliance as the United States wanted to admit both these states into the alliance, but countries such as France and Germany were concerned about Russia’s security interests, and had other reasons for blocking Ukraine’s entrance into the alliance. In mid-January 2008, Ukraine had asked for NATO to provide a Membership Action Plan (MAP) by April, which is when the summit was taking place. However, due to the disagreement inside the alliance, NATO stated that Ukraine and Georgia will both join the alliance, but never provided an action plan or any timeline as to when, so the Russian security interests could still be secure. This was, however, the worst of both worlds as neither did Ukraine and Georgia gain any security guarantee, nor did the Russian interests stay secure. 

Later in August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia, which was Europe’s first war in the 21st century. This reaction was set off as a result of Russian insecurities of Ukraine and Georgia becoming a part of NATO being confirmed. While this was an expected reaction from Russia, it was also a demonstration of why countries such as Ukraine and Georgia attempt to be a part of NATO and amplifies the need for security guarantees. 

Ukraine’s president in 2008, Viktor Yushchenko, was very vocal about his support for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. After his presidency, President Yanukovych took over in 2010, and had close relations with Russia. Yanukovych passed a bill to remove admission into NATO from the national security strategy. In November 2013 Yanukovych also suspended the signing of the association agreement between the European Union and Ukraine, which was met with resistance from the population. This incident also preceded a loan taken by the government under Yanukovych from Russia. This led to small protests in Ukraine in the Capital city of Kyiv and other cities as well. On 30th November 2013, a few protestors decided to stay overnight for a protest when the police surrounded the protestors using excessive force and violently beating them up. This led to huge protests throughout the country, which ended up in the ouster of Yanukovych from office. These protests were the Euromaidan protests of 2014 and were one of, if not the most, consequential political events for Ukraine.

2014 was also the year Ukraine was invaded by Russia in the region of Crimea towards the South-East of the country. Russia was met with little resistance from the West, and had invaded a neighbouring European country for the second time. With an invasion underway, NATO’s willingness to admit Ukraine into the alliance had decreased further, since admitting Ukraine into NATO during its invasion would pose an enormous responsibility to the NATO member states. In regards to its security policy, admission into NATO was later added again as an important goal for Ukraine. After the invasion of Crimea, domestic support for joining NATO had increased by a lot, and is one of the many reasons the Ukrainian public is not keen on staying under the Russian sphere of influence. 

“Not One Inch East”

One of the events that are largely referred to is the promise of limiting NATO’s expansion, one that was made as the Soviet Union was collapsing. However there are numerous misconceptions about this statement. First, Gorbachev himself admits that the topic of NATO’s enlargement was not discussed at all. Second, the statement of “not one inch east” was made in the context of NATO’s troops being stationed in East Germany after the Unification of Germany. It is also important to note that none of the countries that border Russia actually host nuclear weapons as a part of NATO. 

While NATO never provided any guarantee of not expanding, the alliance does not recruit on the basis of military conquest. NATO expands only if more states want to be members of the organisation. The willingness of states to join the alliance can be attributed to the amount of insecurity they have regarding their defensive needs. Sweden and Finland are both states that joined the alliance after the invasion of Ukraine, since their security was threatened given Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. Perhaps one solution to NATO’s expansion would have been to not violate the sovereignty of smaller neighbours.

Historical Context

Ukraine has been the subject of some important historical events under Moscow’s influence, such as the Holodomor Genocide in the 1930s. Under the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin recognised growing Ukrainian nationalism and a growing identity. To help remove this sentiment there was a forced famine in Ukraine, called the Holodomor Genocide. There were arrests of Ukrainian elites and intellectuals to help quell any separatist sentiment in Ukraine. There were thousands of small rebellions against the Soviet authorities by Ukrainians in the 1930s, which led to the Holodomor, which was a man-made famine. It primarily affected villagers and farmers, who were  majority of Ukraine’s population at the time. The death toll of this famine is estimated to range between 3.5 to 7 million. 

Another example of atrocities Ukraine has been subjected to is the deportation of the Crimean Tatars. After regaining control of Crimea from Nazi Germany, The Soviet Union blamed the ethnic minority (the Crimean Tatars) of collaborating with the Nazis, and decided to deport hundreds of thousands of them to territories such as Uzbekistan. Most families were not given much time to pack as they were shifted out of Crimea and moved to Uzbekistan. It is also important to note that about 8000 died on the way to these territories. By May 20th, the deportation had been completed and by June, 51000 Russians were provided with empty homes (that previously belonged to the Tatars) and moved to Crimea. The autonomy of Crimea was also eliminated and it was transferred to being under the control of the Russian republic. Demonstrations in Uzbek cities as the deported Tatars protested to move back to their homeland were met with force from the Soviet state.

These are two examples of the historic treatment of Ukrainian autonomy that Moscow has repeatedly attempted to remove. However, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has declared itself to be an independent democratic sovereign republic, something the Russian state is actively attempting to destroy. 

Conclusion

While the Russian state (and other opponents of the west) argue that NATO’s expansion has been the immediate cause for the war in Ukraine, it is important to understand the relations between Ukraine and NATO. As an alliance, NATO has not stationed any nuclear weapons in states that border Russia, and also had few troops stationed outside their home territories before the war in Ukraine. Russia’s treatment of Ukraine historically, and its inability to accept Ukraine as a sovereign republic has been an important cause of the war. It is no coincidence that the people of Ukraine have an aversion to the Russian sphere of Influence and would actively vote to be a part of the European Union and NATO, as they need the security guarantees that Russia cannot provide. At the same time NATO has rejected Ukraine multiple times, and as an alliance expands when new members want to be recruited, and not by military conquest. It is not NATO that has followed an aggressive policy of recruiting members in Europe, these populations happen to have been subjected to horrible treatment under Soviet occupation for decades and prefer to have security guarantees from the West instead. If the Russian state were to ever be a democratic state, one that did not follow aggressive militarist policies against neighbours, the entire situation would be easier to solve. As far as American foreign policy goes, there is a comfortable spot, as Europe will continue to support NATO due to Russia’s aggressiveness. 

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About the Author

Tanish Srivastava is a student at the Jindal School of International Affairs and is very interested in issues related to security and economics.